When we were still forced to close down for half a day for Costco, we didn't realize that Apple was already "deserted"...

When we were still forced to close down for half a day for Costco, we did not realize that such a "panic buying frenzy" was originally a "pearl of the night" embedded in the crown of apple, which was a "happy worry":

In 2010, the iPhone 4 was officially launched. A large number of scalpers came to sweep the goods in the Apple retail store in Sanlitun, Beijing. The scene was out of control for a time, and Apple had to take measures to close the store to ensure the safety of the scene.

In 2011, when the iPhone 4S was released, it was still Sanlitun, Beijing. Two scalpers who came to sweep the goods fought hard, and Apple had to take measures to close the store; but this angered some consumers present, and individuals threw eggs at the retail store. And other items, the scene lost control again.

Although this group in Apple and Costco are obviously not the same group, they are no different in essence, but they are greedy for "petty gain".

However, nine years later, the new generation will change, but only one thing will change: Apple is really not so hot.

Although there is still a lot of people inside the door, it is hard to hear about people like this queuing to buy.

Of course, this has something to do with Apple's change to a "reservation" purchase mechanism. As long as users can accept Apple's high price, it doesn't matter if Apple puts down its shelves and is close to the people. However, this also shows from the side that users' expectations of Apple and Apple's attitude towards users are changing.

In particular, Huami OV has risen strongly in recent years, with Xiaomi standing on the cusp of 2015, OPPO/vivo, which won in 2016/17, and Huawei, which shook the United States hard after 2018. The domestic camp knew its shame and then bravely switched to Internet mobile phones, and finally won the first world war with Apple and Samsung by virtue of its advantages in price, channel and technology; I happened to meet Apple because it went on a crooked road (luxury) and suffered a continuous defeat in Greater China. Samsung was dragged into the quagmire because of its 2016 bombing incident and 2017 THAAD's entry into South Korea.

The chaos of Apple and Samsung gave Huawei, OPPO and vivo an excellent opportunity to pursue the victory, while Xiaomi also detonated the audience once again with Lei Jun's full screen after a brief civil strife.

Once upon a time, Nokia's dominant position in the era of functional machines was subverted by Apple; but after Apple became the "dragon" in the era of smart machines, it ushered in a new "brave".

Once upon a time, Apple's domestic market share reached 25% in 2015, but its market share fell below 10% in 2019.

Of course, Apple has been controlling the wind direction of smart phones for a long time. After the economic winter of 2018, the whole market is indeed weak, but it is also a fact that Apple's bangs are not enough to run rampant in the whole era of full screen.

After the end of the full screen song, Apple is late in the folding screen -5G era, which inevitably makes people doubt its subjective initiative. Although Huami OV has entered a no-man's land and the 5G market is far from mature as expected, it is a matter of attitude here.

And what is Apple doing all this time?

In August 2018, Apple's market value exceeded the trillion-dollar mark, approaching Russia's total economic output.

In September 2018, the iPhone XS MAX will be sold for 9599 yuan, and the 512G version will be as high as 12799 yuan. Even the new iPhone protective case can be sold for 1099 yuan.

But then Apple was beaten back to its original form, and its market value was once surpassed by Amazon and Microsoft; Microsoft is "long-term" entrenched in the trillion-dollar market value throne.

Even if the unit price of the iPhone breaks 10,000 yuan, Apple has not had time to "stabilize" its crumbling crown.

If it is only a pity to be surpassed by Amazon and Microsoft, then being "pig teammate" Qualcomm tripled and "litigated" four times in 2018 is a bit of a worry for Apple.

It is only a small matter to lose the "core machine" by Qualcomm's two-rib knife. After all, people have plenty of cash and spare tires, but their own users find that Apple does not master the "core technology", which is a bit flustered.

In an instant, there are endless public opinions questioning Apple's "high pricing" and "low innovation", but what makes fruit fans speechless is: this is reality.

Qualcomm's several entanglements have brought a bad result. Of course, this is also related to the "luxury" route that Apple quietly embarked on in 2014. However, Apple did not confess its mistake until January 2019:

Apple CEO Cook said in an open letter that he officially lowered his revenue forecast for the first quarter of 2019. Although Cook has repeatedly stressed that other products have performed well, the 8% drop in the stock price is the middle finger that the market has put up against him.

After that, the iPhone price was reduced three times in just 15 days in January: after JD.com Tmall Suning, Apple's official website also began to adjust the price in disguise, and JD.com cut the price again. In March, e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, Suning and Jingdong lowered the iPhone price for the third time.

On the one hand, Apple is indeed cutting prices, but on the other hand, Apple has sharpened its knife and aimed at services and new products:

In March 2019, after Apple secretly updated a series of hardware, it officially entered the "big era of subscription payment"; The dispute over the sharing of the App Store has not been resolved, and Apple has waved scissors to iOS ecology.

In June 2019, Apple brought a Mac Pro "wire planer" with a price of up to US $5999 (about 41437 yuan) on WWDC. Even a special bracket can sell for US $999 (about 6900 yuan).

The iPhone's first-and-then-suppressed gameplay is perfect; but with Apple's fall launch as promised, all kinds of messages are not all good.

In June, Apple recalled 2015 MacBook Pro with Retina displays sold between September 2015 and February 2017, because the battery "may cause fire safety risks"; The FAA quickly reminded airlines not to carry laptops with defective batteries.

At the end of June, Jonathan, one of the founders of Apple style, announced his departure from Apple.

On August 21, after Samsung OLED screen may become the most expensive component on the new iPhone, Apple

Regarding the issue of which areas Apple will "innovate", I believe there have been many "public tests" on the Internet ".

Not surprisingly, Apple should further upgrade its battery life, three-camera system, A- series processor and screen senses. Apart from canceling the 3D Touch interaction system, iPhone 11 still does not support 5G.

Of course, after Huawei, Xiaomi, vivo and Samsung, Apple will probably not be absent in the matter of gradual change.

Although Apple's press conference in recent years has become more and more like a "spitting bad meeting", it is always enough to satisfy people. Not only does it seem to be innovative, but most of the upgrades mentioned at the press conference are compared with their own products, which has lagged behind their competitors for centuries.

But we don't have to worry about this matter. We are more concerned about the necessity of Apple's "innovation" this time.



1. Voice from the government

In September 2018, the update of iOS 12 brought the "screen time" function.

Then Apple took off the shelf or limited 11 of the 17 most downloaded screen time apps in 2018.

In May 2019, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Apple lost an antitrust case against the App Store's "off-screen time app"; Apple's market value evaporated by $more than 50 billion overnight.

In June 2019, Apple issued a document claiming that the new round of tariffs would weaken Apple's competitiveness and reduce the company's contribution to the U.S. Treasury.

However, starting from September 1, Apple's products including AirPods,Apple Watch, some iMac,HomePod and other products will be shrouded in the shadow of the 15% tariff policy.

Moreover, Apple is also under the influence of the Trump government and is planning to move Apple manufacturing to Southeast Asia; the Indian market, which was once highly expected by Apple, is not strong, which puts Apple in a dilemma between government decision-making and the Chinese market.



2. Voice from Opponents

There is no need to repeat the feud between Qualcomm and Apple.

Huami OV, Samsung's 5G, and the birth of Hongmeng, Apple will be somewhat alarmed.

Before Apple's autumn conference, Google first exploded its security vulnerabilities and updated its new system Android 10, which is evident in its intentions.



3. Voice from Developers

The world's bitter apple tax has been long.

In July 2019, the "Apple Tax" extended the service to a medical platform with a public welfare nature, resulting in individual applications that could not be updated. Some iOS developers initiated a class action lawsuit on the grounds of Apple's abuse of monopoly power.

Since its launch in July 2008, Apple's iOS App Store has charged developers a 30% amount of running water, and its charging scope has gradually spread to all IAP payments such as subscriptions, game coins, paid content, unlocking, etc. in the app. Large developers still have the confidence to resist Apple, but independent developers are powerless.



4. Voice from teammates

In August 2019, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak bluntly criticized Apple, "Apple should have been split long ago".

Woz felt that after Apple became Big Tech, it lacked the ability of independent departments to think independently.



These voices gradually converge into the same note, and Apple's "internal and external troubles" continue.

This may be why Apple calls for "innovation.

As for users, from its high quality to high price, Apple really doesn't care that much.



②
Why didn't Apple innovate?
○

However, it is the users that Apple doesn't care so much that confirm that Apple lacks the gene for "innovation.

When did Apple lose its innovation?

Is Jobs gone, Lee Crowe retired, or Jonathan left?

No, this is not. It is Cook's subtle influence on Apple. Apple has since taken a fork in the road.

Innovation, the word, is an inherent trait of Apple.

It originated from the blue box of Jobs and Woz, permeated the subversive image of Apple's "1984" Macintosh, and flowed into the return of Jobs in "Think Different.

The blue box itself is a kind of attempt and exploration, 1984 beyond the definition of innovation, and the Different of Think coincides with innovation. After that, Jobs continued to describe what innovation is with iMac, iPod, iPhone and iPad. Cook waved the flag and shouted on the basis of Jobs to prove the value of innovation in trillions (US dollars).

Since Apple had the gene for innovation from the beginning, and Jobs knew it well, why did Cook call for "innovation?

This is naturally because Apple in Cook's era is different from Apple in Jobs's era: Jobs spent 23 years to increase the commercial proportion of industrial design, Jonathan spent 27 years to implement it, but Cook "downgraded" industrial design in only 8 years. Their adherence to different industrial designs has changed Apple's innovative core.

Apple in the Jobs era was highly anticipated, but it relied heavily on Cook in business.

The market value of Apple in the Cook era has been rising steadily, taking the lead in breaking through trillions, but its design has gradually lost the pride of leading the times.

In 2010, Apple was close to Nokia, ranking second in the world's smartphones. In 2011, Apple and Samsung overtook and eliminated Nokia. From 2012 to 2017, Apple's revenue and valuation continued to rise, becoming Dow Jones's largest listed company in the world by market value at the end of the year.

However, during this period, Apple continued to increase the price of new models, and the problems of design innovation and system innovation of new models became increasingly serious.

Coupled with Huami OV's bravery and aggressiveness, Apple's "inaction" is even more highlighted. Although Apple can still use the ugly "Liu Haiping" to make a blessing on the full screen, the so-called Apple believers all have two ambitions after a brief pursuit.

In such a situation, Apple itself is not unclear. From the theme of its press conference in recent years, we can see one or two things:

"See you on the 7th" in 2016, "Let's meet at our place" in 2017, "weather round" in 2018, and "By innovation only" in 2019 ".

Obviously, before 2018, Apple still lived in its "big family (iOS big ecology) dream". It was not until 2019 that Apple woke up like a dream.

Of course, once a bright spot in Apple's financial report, Greater China, which has seen the largest revenue increase, has been reduced to the hardest hit area, and the decline for six consecutive quarters has naturally made Apple break out in a cold sweat; although Cook has thrown the pot into the environment of China's consumer downgrade, this statement cannot stand scrutiny.

In order to save the Chinese market, Apple made concessions again and again on the price and finally recovered the decline in iPhone8/8Plus.

However, such frequent adjustment of the price system has also shaken Apple's original intention of "innovation-driven sales, sales to generate the scale of application service revenue.

This is quite different from Apple's "just be yourself, don't cater to, don't compromise" character in the Jobs era.

It can be said that Apple has accumulated a lot of money today.

It is true that these hidden factors are the existence that fruit fans do not want to delve into or believe, but what we see in the eyes of other users is such a fact.



First: Confidentiality mechanisms fester

In the past few years, the confidentiality mechanism that Apple is proud of has ceased to exist. In spring and autumn, there will always be a final version of the appearance of the new iPhone, which will flow out through peripheral manufacturers or KOL.

This kind of "fake and real" revelation has become more and more "realistic", bringing a lot of popularity to KOL, but also rapidly consuming the heat of the press conference before the press conference; more importantly, Apple officials are indifferent to this, which makes all kinds of insiders and uninformed people flock to it.

If the press conference can avoid all kinds of predictions to bring freshness, it will be fine, but it can't; instead, it has repeatedly "crowned" all kinds of whistleblowers; this makes the mystery of the press conference "disappear".



Second: The gameplay remains the same

Since the iPhone 6 conference was targeted by the genius red panda in 2014, it has become a "must-see" program for netizens. Especially in recent years, with fewer and fewer highlights at Apple's press conference, even the self-media people have lost the interest of staying up late to "watch". The series of pictures made by the genius red panda has become more and more popular in a playful way.

Hardware is upgrading, prices are soaring, and innovation is impossible to innovate. To be mean, it is just an "update" on the digital series ".

Although there were Apple Watch, Home Pod, AirPods and unmanned cars in Cook's era, it was not without them. The debut of Apple Watch and AirPods was quite good, but none of them could carry Apple's next decade.



Third: Apple to Soft Survival

Since Apple tasted the benefits of App Store in 2008, Apple has been on the verge of monopoly.

In particular, after Apple's continuous defeat in Greater China, it has been unable to please users in India, which forces Apple to find new growth points as soon as possible. The 1 billion installed capacity of iOS gave Apple the confidence to charge for subscriptions, and Apple turned brazenly in the spring of 2019.

Instead of innovating and opening up open sources, they want to pluck their hair. This decision makes users more disappointed with Apple.



(3)
Apple's Prisoner's Dilemma?
○

Of course, Apple itself lives by intercepting high profits and suffers setbacks in hardware, so it naturally wants to make some extra money in other areas. Apple is soft, but it just chose content services.

Under various pressures from the government, opponents, teammates, developers, and users, Apple has a last resort whether it is soft or innovative.



First: Is the iPhone in jeopardy?

The iPhone defines the era of smartphones and the company Apple. But today, the iPhone is holding Apple back.

In the past few years, the iPhone has been the absolute main force of Apple's revenue, but now the proportion of iPhone sales in total revenue has fallen to less than half; and this may be the biggest reason for Apple's transformation into a service company. The iPhone is no longer so popular. popular.

However, it is obvious that Apple News, Apple TV, Apple Card and Apple Arcade are not so easy to succeed. Apple has to prepare for new giants in new fields. This will make Apple all enemies.



Second: Apple's price strategy?

User demand for high-end smartphones is slowing, and slowing faster than the mid-range and low-end; this is the essence of the iPhone's no longer sexy.

In fact, since the beginning of iPhone X, some users have expressed dissatisfaction with Apple's increasingly expensive products. Industry insiders also believe that Apple should not make iPhone a "luxury"; but Apple has turned a blind eye.

Although various disguised price cuts have indeed stimulated the sales of "old apples", the pricing on new apples is as arrogant as ever. A set of Mac Pro may cost as much as US $39,000 (about 270,000 yuan), and the Mac Pro is even labeled "Don't Get Close to the Poor.



Third: Apple's collapse over the years?

Not to mention that in the past two years, Apple has invested in Home Pod and unmanned vehicles toddler in Handan. Apple News, Apple TV, Apple Card and Apple Arcade are not very unusual. It always gives people the illusion of slow step by step and slow step by step. On this basis, Apple is still on the rocks:

In January 2019, people familiar with the matter said that Apple this week fired more than 200 employees from its secretive self-driving car project Titan Project.

In March 2019, Apple announced the failure of airpower research and development and canceled the airpower project released in 2017 and expected to be launched in 2018.

In July 2019, supply chain sources revealed that Apple's team that was originally responsible for developing AR/VR headsets had been disintegrated in May.

Apple's education is constrained by its high price. Near the press conference, Apple was revealed to have left many old employees of its health team.



Fourth: Apple lacks the next decade of explosions?

In the Jobs era, Apple had ten-year explosions such as iMac, iPod, iPhone and iPad.

In Cook's era, only Apple Watch and AirPods were able to handle, but Apple Watch, AirPods and iMac, iPod, iPhone and iPad were obviously not of the same order of magnitude. Although Cook really worked hard, he still could only follow Jobs' digital series step by step.

The iMac is 21 years old, the iPhone is 12 years old, and even the iPad is 9 years old, but Apple still hasn't found its next decade of explosions.



④
Apple's Next Era?
○

Although Apple's next decade of explosions have not yet been found, Apple's next era has come.

If Jobs' departure is not enough for us to notice the changes in Apple's genes, after all, most people have witnessed Cook's growth when they come into contact with Apple. However, after Jonathan, the soul of Apple's design, left office this time, Apple may no longer be JOJO's (Jobs & Jonathan) Apple.

Who is Jeff Williams to replace Jonathan?

He is Apple's chief operating officer. He has led the development of Apple Watch and participated in the design of iPhone 4.

After experiencing the product development of iPhone 4, Jeff Williams has been in the leading role of the company's operation management and product development, including several popular product lines of iPad, iPod and Mac. With its excellent supply chain collaboration and operation capabilities, Fortune magazine named Williams Tim Cook of Tim Cook in 2011.

Unlike Jonathan, who was the main product design force of Apple's early iMac, iPhone, iPod and iPad, Jeff Williams was only responsible for the development of Apple Watch. We don't have to rush to deny Jeff's Williams operation ability, but his design skills need to be questioned.

However, Apple, which is turning to service at this stage, may need Jeff Williams, who can be responsible for operation and sales. When Apple's demand for hardware is not so urgent, Jeff Williams is Cook's right and left hand.

After all, to some extent, Jonathan's design strength is strong, but it is undeniable that Apple did have a trend of decline during his tenure.

Jeff's Williams replacement of Jonathan may be what Apple wants at this stage-to completely "de-Jobize": to use business-driven design instead of being led by design.

We don't know what the future is after Apple's "de-Jobs" and how much "dry goods" can iOS squeeze out "?

However, there is no doubt that Apple urgently needs to impress consumers with a new design language.



⑤
Where is Apple's future?
○
In the face of Apple, a technology company that has dominated the trend after repeated miracles, it is difficult for us to maintain "absolute sanity". Any Apple can reduce its posture a little bit and the profits it releases can be amazed, but if Apple really reduces its posture, this is not Apple. After all, people also have idol burden.

Therefore, for Apple at this stage, it is expected that the price can be lowered, but the positioning is absolutely untouchable.

Although Ahrenz has been resigned, who said Cook and Jeff Williams are not the next "luxury" CEO?

Of course, if the previous Apple hardware was paving the way for software, its high premium is a bit difficult to understand. So when Apple's "soft" content ecology begins to defend its hardware, is its high price understandable?

After all, is its exclusive experience unparalleled in the world.

And this is the ecological island chain that Apple is building around its own Great Wall of hardware.

First: Apple Core

Among Apple's many wars, the most concerned is probably the "core thing" of others ".

Along the way, Apple first threw the motorcycle and then gave up Intel. Samsung and Qualcomm separated their powers and checked and balanced, and finally created "the fastest personal computer in the world". The self-developed A- series processor has been crowned for many years.

Today, although Apple is under Qualcomm's backlash, it finally ends with Apple's $1 billion acquisition of Intel's baseband chip business.

We are not sure whether Apple can fulfill its promise that "all iPhone core components will be produced by itself", but it is true that Apple's voice in chip design and manufacturing and systems has reached an unprecedented level.

On the one hand, Apple uses money to open the way in the field of high-end chips, on the other hand, Apple seeks on the smart tracking label; this up and down, a high-end, a general purpose, shows the depth of Apple's layout.

It is a step late in the interconnection of everything, but it may not be able to pull back a city through a tagged module tracker.



Second: Apple Health

If item is an expensive wedge that Apple spilled in the era of Internet of Everything, then 5G Apple Watch is the first step for the entire iOS ecosystem to emigrate to 5G.

It is hard to say whether Apple is wise or conservative and gave 5G to Apple Watch instead of iPhone for the first time. However, there is no denying that Apple does not dare to easily bet on the future of 5G on the iPhone.

The 5G landing watch can not only show Apple's sincerity to 5G, but also break through the blockade of Huami OV and Samsung. Why not.

Moreover, when Apple's health personnel are lost, it is indeed a wonderful move to shift its attention to Apple Watch.



Third: Apple System

On the 2019 WWDC, Apple completed its five major systems macOS, iOS, tvOS, watchOS and iPadOS.

As the "next generation" system iPadOS, Apple's last bet, obviously wants to redefine the iPad and turn it into a productivity tool.

As a third-party interaction platform between iOS touch screen and macOS mouse precise click interaction, iPad has greater plasticity than iPhone and iMac in the era of Internet of Everything.



Fourth: Apple Content

Although the development of Apple's "Big Entertainment" is destined to be less smooth, Apple's strategy of deeply binding software and hardware is a two-dimensional method:

On the one hand, Apple TV applications are embedded in Apple's own mobile devices in the ecosystem and will land on Apple computers in the second half of this year.

On the other hand, Apple TV will enter various brands of smart TVs outside the ecology, and even embed streaming media playback and TV equipment produced by its content competitors, such as Amazon, Roku, LG, Sony, Vizio, Samsung, etc.

This kind of soft and hard practice is similar to Amazon's video subscription service and benchmarking Netflix, which gives Apple great flexibility. Although Dacheng is a little difficult, it is still relatively easy.

Fifth: Apple Education

Although it is a bit of a hindsight to say that "education is in Apple's DNA", Jobs did fulfill his promise to donate a computer to each of 9250 schools in 1982.

And AppStore has already formed the embryonic form of Apple's education: all education-related applications, such as iTunes U, music video production software, etc.; However, a large number of free education software are not enough to support Apple's education. In addition to the ideal, Apple is facing a grim reality.

However, the "everyone programmable" project proposed by Apple in 2016, which implements "basic education" and tries to help students from kindergarten to university learn programming, may break the barriers of Apple hardware.



Sixth: Apple Travel

Apple's driverless plan has been somewhat stalled since the Titan Project laid off more than 200 employees.

However, in June 2019, Apple reached an acquisition agreement with Drive.ai, Wu Enda's driverless star company. One with money and the other with people gave both great imagination.



Seventh: Apple Finance

As the only "hardware" at Apple's spring conference, Apple Card has earned enough attention.

And it has no physical card number, no security code, no expiration date and cash-back attributes that are really refreshing; this is a small step in Apple's finance and a big step in Internet finance in Europe and the United States.

Finally, whether everyone is singing down or killing today's Apple, the only thing we need to be sure is that Apple once stood on the altar, and it is still the object of many people's longing.

It has had subversive design and led the trend of the times; it has had the best user experience and the best user privacy protection mechanism; it has had such strength, and I believe it has the opportunity to stand on the "top of the gods".

And all this depends on what choice it makes in a week's time: whether to come up with products that really amaze consumers out of the "comfort zone", or to continue to guard Jobs' legacy to "sit and eat the sky", it depends on whether it really has Heart to innovate?

Don't you see Jobs faced a "flashy" mockery when he took out his first iPhone to amaze the audience.

When you don't see IPhone4 to introduce Retina retina screen, you face the question of "virtual appearance.

When you don't see IPhone4 introduced stainless steel frame antenna, you paid the price of "death grip.

When IPhone5S introduced fingerprint recognition and IPhone X introduced structured light face unlocking, there was also a public outcry.

So this time Cook still dare to "risk universal condemnation", we will wait and see?

PS: Some materials come from @ Zhihu @ Tiger Smell @ Aifan @ iT Home